A Break in the Storm

👋 ICYMI

After five brutal weeks, markets finally caught a break. The S&P 500 rose 2.7% this past week — its best week in four months and its first weekly gain since mid-February, before the U.S.-Iran war began. The Dow added over 2.2% and the Nasdaq soared 4%.

The primary catalyst came Tuesday, when an unconfirmed report indicated Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was open to ending the war with guarantees. However, optimism was tested Thursday after Trump's primetime address warned the U.S. plans to "hit Iran hard," sending oil above $110 before stocks partially recovered on a report that Iran is working with Oman on a plan to monitor transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

On the economic front, March nonfarm payrolls came in at 178,000 — nearly three times the expected 60,000 — with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The strong report helped ease near-term stagflation fears, though markets were closed for Good Friday and won't trade on the data until Monday.

And in a rare public interview, Warren Buffett told CNBC he sold Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.11% ) "too soon," said Berkshire $BRK.A ( ▲ 0.01% ) has deployed $17 billion into Treasury bills recently, and dismissed the current market drawdown as "nothing" compared to the three times Berkshire's stock dropped over 50% in his career.

🔁 Market Movers

• 💼 March Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

  The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, far surpassing the 60,000 consensus, with unemployment dipping to 4.3% and wage growth slowing. The strong data may ease concerns about labour market deterioration that surfaced after February's shocking 92,000 payroll decline. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 3 basis points to 4.35% on the release. Traders continue to price in zero Fed rate cuts for the remainder of 2026.

• 🏦 Buffett: "I Sold Apple Too Soon" — But Won't Buy Yet

  Warren Buffett, in his first interview since stepping down as Berkshire CEO at the start of 2026, told CNBC he would buy "a whole lot" of Apple if it got cheap enough — but "not in this market". He revealed Berkshire deployed $17 billion into Treasury bills in a single week, is sitting on roughly $350 billion in cash, and has made more than $100 billion in pre-tax gains from Apple to date. On the current selloff: "Three times since I took over, it's gone down more than 50%. This is nothing to get excited about."

• 🚗 Tesla Misses Q1 Delivery Estimates

  Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 5.42% ) delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026 — up 6.3% year over year but roughly 7,600 units below the Wall Street consensus of 365,645. More concerning: production of 408,386 outpaced deliveries by over 50,000 units, suggesting softening demand. Energy storage deployments fell to 8.8 GWh, down from both the prior quarter's 14.2 GWh record and the year-ago 10.4 GWh. The stock dropped roughly 5.5% on the news. Full Q1 financial results are due April 22.

• 🤖 OpenAI Closes $122 Billion Round at $852 Billion Valuation

  OpenAI completed a massive $122 billion funding round this past week, valuing the ChatGPT maker at a staggering $852 billion post-money. The raise underscores the scale of private capital flowing into AI. Anthropic is also reportedly weighing an IPO this year, as is Databricks, last valued at $134 billion. These potential listings could provide a major tailwind for investment banking revenues at firms like Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 0.33% ) and Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▲ 0.04% ) if the geopolitical environment stabilises.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 📊 The March Jobs Report Changes the Narrative — Slightly

  The 178,000 payroll number pushes back against the "collapsing labour market" narrative that took hold after February's surprise decline. The three-month average now sits at roughly 68,000 jobs added — modest but not recessionary. Next week's March CPI report (April 10) will be even more important — it will be the first inflation reading to capture data from after the war began. If it comes in hot, rate hike talk will intensify.

• 💰 Buffett's Cash Hoard Is Its Own Signal

  Berkshire sitting on $350 billion in cash and T-bills, with Buffett saying the market "isn't offering the right opportunity yet," is a statement in itself. The greatest investor in history sees value emerging but not yet at compelling levels. That's both a cautionary signal — this correction may have further to go — and a bullish one, because when Buffett does deploy, it tends to mark generational entry points.

• ⛽ Gas Above $4 Is a Consumer Tax

  Gasoline crossing $4 nationally — with some parts of California above $6 — acts as a direct tax on consumer spending. This is the first time above $4 since August 2022, and it comes as the OECD projects U.S. inflation at 4.2%. Rising energy costs erode disposable income, which eventually feeds into weaker retail sales and earnings downgrades. Watch the March retail sales data (due this week) and Q1 earnings guidance closely for signs of consumer fatigue.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

The First War-Era Inflation Print Arrives Thursday

The March CPI report — due April 10 — will be the first inflation reading to include data from after the Iran war began on February 28. Core PCE already hit 3.1% year over year in January, its highest in nearly two years and well above the Fed's 2% target. With gas now above $4 nationally for the first time since 2022, the OECD projecting U.S. inflation at 4.2%, and input prices accelerating across manufacturing and services, there is a real risk that this report comes in hot enough to revive rate hike expectations and reverse the week's hard-won gains. Energy is a direct consumer cost — but it's also an indirect one, feeding into transportation, food, and the manufacturing of virtually every good. If the March CPI surprises to the upside, the relief rally could be short-lived.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

📬 Closing Note

For the first time in six weeks, the market posted a green number on the weekly chart.

Does it mean the worst is behind us? Not necessarily. The March CPI report arrives Thursday. Q1 earnings season kicks off next week. There's no shortage of catalysts that could push us in either direction.

But what last week showed is that markets want to rally. The speed with which investors bought Tuesday's ceasefire report — sending the Dow up over 1,100 points in a single session — tells you that there is an enormous amount of sidelined capital waiting for a reason to re-enter.

Buffett captured the mood perfectly: "Three times since I took over, it's gone down more than 50%. This is nothing to get excited about."

The man sitting on $350 billion in cash isn't panicking. He's patient. He's waiting for the right pitch. And he's reminding us all that the best time to be thinking about your portfolio is precisely when the noise makes it hardest to think clearly.

Stay patient. Stay selective. And let the data guide the story.

Until next Sunday —

George ☕