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A Market Looking for Direction
Big Tech volatility, hawkish Fed commentary, and global slowdown signals collide

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👋 ICYMI
Markets swung sharply this week as Big Tech volatility collided with fresh uncertainty on the timing of Fed rate cuts. Treasury yields climbed after several Fed officials warned against easing too quickly, and a soft batch of labor indicators added to the muddled outlook. Meanwhile, mixed earnings from chipmakers and cloud-software names kept pressure on the Nasdaq, which closed the week weaker.
🔁 Market Movers
😨AI Valuation Concerns Resurface
On Nov 11, the SoftBank Group disclosed a US $5.83 billion sale of its stake in NVIDIA Corporation $NVDA ( ▲ 1.77% ) , sparking renewed investor caution about the sustainability of tech/AI valuation models. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged lower as a result.🏛️ Shutdown Relief Boosts Non-Tech Sectors
On Nov 11, European equities rose and U.S. value sectors quietly gained as the Senate approved a bill to end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history — boosting optimism around data flow and reopening-related earnings corridors🌍 Global Stocks Buckle as Rate-Cut Odds Fade
On Nov 14, global equities slipped while U.S. Treasury yields rose after several Fed officials signalled less willingness to cut rates in December, pushing risk-assets lower and reinforcing rotation away from tech.
👀 Signals I’m Watching
🧐SoftBank’s NVDA Exit Signals Sentiment Shift
SoftBank’s surprise $5.83 billion Nvidia sale this week has traders questioning whether the AI trade is entering a new phase of moderation. When one of the earliest AI backers trims exposure this aggressively, positioning risk becomes a real signal.
📊 Market Pricing Pushes Back Against Rate-Cut Narrative
Traders slashed December rate-cut odds after multiple Fed officials warned that inflation progress remains “uneven.” Treasury yields rose in response — showing markets are starting to price more restrictive conditions into year-end.
🏛️ Shutdown Resolution Could Unleash Delayed Data
The Senate’s progress toward ending the shutdown means a rush of delayed macro releases (CPI, PPI, retail sales, labor data) may hit all at once in the coming days. This “data whiplash” risk could cause abrupt volatility spikes.
🌍 Global Manufacturing Signals Weakness
A drop in the Eurozone composite PMI to a 9-month low this week hints at weakening global demand—an early warning that U.S. corporate earnings may face external pressure in Q1.
💸 Rising Delinquencies Showing Up in the Shadows
Though official U.S. consumer credit data is delayed, private-sector trackers showed upticks in credit-card and auto delinquencies this week, with lenders raising loss-provisions more aggressively.
Want full access to all my stock ideas, deep-dive research, and our exclusive Discord community where I share real-time insights and personal portfolio updates? You can become a premium member here! 💯✨
⚠️ Red Flag to Note
Several Fed officials pushed back against market expectations for a December rate cut this week, and futures pricing shifted sharply in response. Traders went from leaning on easing to preparing for a “higher for longer” reset, sending yields up and tech stocks down. The red flag: positioning across equities is still skewed toward optimism. When rate expectations flip this quickly, markets tend to underestimate how fast valuations — especially in high-multiple tech — can compress.
🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching
Ticker | Insider | Action | Value | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Hsing—CEO | Sell | ~$38.3M | Large CEO-level sale in a semiconductor company amid AI/infrastructure talk. | |
Charle Robbin — Director | Sell | ~$15.8M | Board-level sale in a major networking/tech company; raises alert around sector breadth. | |
$XZO | Paresh Patel — CEO & Director | Buy | ~$1.05M | A meaningful insider purchase in a newly-filing AI analytics player — signals CEO confidence at IPO stage. |
→✨NEW ✨ My framework for reading insider moves — when buy signals outweigh noise (and when they don’t)
🚀IPO Watch
🗓️Upcoming IPOs
🔄 Teamshares Inc. (Ticker: TMS) — To list in the U.S. via a ~$746 million SPAC merger backed by T. Rowe Price. Proceeds expected ~$333 million.
🧠 Gloo Holdings (Ticker: GLOO) —Technology company that builds digital platforms for the faith-based, nonprofit, and community-engagement ecosystem. U.S. IPO targeting a ~$100 million raise, price range ~$10–12/share.
🏦 Central Bancompany (Ticker: CBC) — Regional U.S. banking group with a long operating history and more than $19 billion in assets. It serves communities across Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Florida through The Central Trust Bank and its subsidiaries. U.S. IPO expected to bring in ~$400 million with a price range ~$21–24/share.
📬 Closing Note
The edge now lies in staying selective, focusing on companies with real earnings power, and avoiding the noise while the market waits for clarity. Keep your discipline sharp and your watchlist ready.
Until next Sunday —
George
