👋 ICYMI
After the most consequential Fed decision in three years, the market's verdict this week was clear: higher rates aren't enough to kill this rally. The S&P 500 gained 1.2% to close at 7,743 — its first winning week in three and within 0.7% of its all-time high set in August. The Nasdaq climbed 2.1% to 27,069 — hitting a new record close on Monday, its first since June 2. The Dow gained 0.3% to 51,829, notching its first winning week in three.
And yet the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.18% on Friday — its highest level since the global financial crisis — while oil remained above $92. The market climbed a wall of worry that would have been unthinkable at the start of the year: the first rate hike in three years, yields at 19-year highs, oil above $90, and consumer sentiment at a four-month low.
At the UN General Assembly, Trump suggested he was considering a diesel export ban ahead of November's midterm elections, saying: "I've said let's not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel". The oil industry has warned such a move would backfire and exacerbate the global fuel crisis.
🔁 Market Movers
📈 First Winning Week in Three — S&P 500 Back Within 0.7% of All-Time High
The S&P 500 gained 1.2% to 7,743.41, and the Nasdaq surged 2.1% to 27,068.72 — with the Nasdaq hitting a new record close on Monday. The Dow added 0.3%. "As long as the growth keeps up to more than offset the rate hikes, you can still see equities continue to rally," said Catalyst Funds' David Miller. Certuity CIO Scott Welch added: "While I'm not bearish on the market, I do think we're kind of in a chug-along environment for the rest of this year."
📊 10-Year Hits 5.18% — Highest Since the Global Financial Crisis
The benchmark 10-year yield reached 5.135% on Wednesday — the biggest one-day move since April 2025 — after PMI data came in hot. By Friday, it settled at 5.18%, marking the highest weekly close since 2007. BlackRock's Rick Rieder described the bond selloff as "not a crisis but an eye-opener". Certuity's Welch forecasts further yield pressure and expects at least one more hike in 2026 "and probably another time or two in 2027."
🛢 Oil Drops to $92 on Iran MoU Hopes
Oil fell over the week from above $100 to $92.52 on reports that Iran asked the U.S. to return to the June memorandum of understanding. Friday's 2.21% decline in WTI was the single biggest contributor to risk-on sentiment. If genuine progress emerges, oil could return to the $80s, dramatically improving the inflation outlook and potentially delaying further hikes.
🚀 SpaceX Nasdaq-100 Weighting Doubles — $15–22B in Buying
SpaceX's $SPCX ( ▲ 0.44% ) quarterly rebalance pushed its Nasdaq-100 weighting from 1.28% to 2.82% as lockup shares became tradable, triggering an estimated $15.5 to $22 billion in programmatic buying from index funds and ETFs. The stock has ranged between $135 (IPO price) and $225.64 (June record) since its debut. The rebalance effectively doubles passive demand for SpaceX shares.
😟 Consumer Sentiment Falls to 48.1 — Gas at $4.50
September consumer sentiment dropped to 48.1 from August's 51.7 — a four-month low. Short-run business expectations "plunged amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes could pass through to the economy," said survey director Joanne Hsu. Gas at $4.50 nationally is acting as a direct tax on consumer spending power.
👀 Signals I'm Watching
📊 The Market Has Decoupled From Yields — But for How Long?
The S&P 500 gained 1.2% in the same week the 10-year hit 5.18%. That decoupling — stocks rising while borrowing costs surge — is only sustainable if corporate earnings growth outpaces the discount rate increase. With S&P 500 earnings growing 25%+ and AI demand accelerating, the math works for now. But at a forward P/E above 21x and the 10-year above 5%, even a modest deceleration in earnings growth would break the equation.
🕊 Iran's MoU Request Could Be the Peace Catalyst
Iran asking to return to the June memorandum of understanding is the most significant diplomatic development since the ceasefire collapsed in July. If the U.S. re-engages, oil could fall below $85 within weeks, which would immediately improve the inflation outlook and reduce rate hike pressure. This is the most important geopolitical variable for markets heading into Q4.
🗳 Midterms and the Diesel Export Ban
Trump floating a diesel export ban at the UN — with midterms in November — introduces a new political variable for energy markets. An export ban would lower domestic fuel prices but raise global diesel costs, potentially backfiring on U.S. producers and trading partners. The energy industry's pushback suggests this is more political positioning than policy, but in this market, even signals can move prices.
🤖 Akamai-Anthropic and the AI Infrastructure Broadening
Akamai's $AKAM ( ▲ 3.2% ) multiyear deal with Anthropic — announced Friday — is the latest signal that AI compute demand is spreading beyond hyperscalers into CDN and edge infrastructure companies. Anthropic and OpenAI mega-IPOs are reportedly in the pipeline for later this year or early 2027, which would bring another wave of capital into the AI ecosystem.
Personal Portfolio Vs. The Nasdaq
My portfolio gained 5.2% last week, compared to 2.06% for the Nasdaq. Some of my high-conviction holdings continued to outperform — Vicor ($VICR) alone rose nearly 30% on the week, with Bloom Energy ($BE) also delivering solid gains.
Investment Club members have full access to my portfolio holdings, allocation, real-time trade updates, and price targets. If you'd like to follow along and join a community of long-term growth investors, now is a good time to become a member.
Thank you for your continued support,
George
⚠️ Red Flag to Note
The 10-Year at 5.18% Is Not Normal
The last time the 10-year Treasury yield closed this high, the global financial crisis was months away. That's not a prediction — it's context. At 5.18%, the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, for corporations, and for homebuyers has reached levels that historically precede economic slowdowns. The market is trading as if yields don't matter because AI earnings are strong enough to compensate. That's been true for two quarters. But every additional basis point of yield compresses valuations, raises borrowing costs, and squeezes the consumer. Consumer sentiment at 48.1, gas at $4.50, and rate hike odds at 90% for another increase paint a backdrop where the consumer is approaching a breaking point — even as the S&P 500 sits within 0.7% of its all-time high. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been wider.
🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching
Ticker | Insider | Action | Value | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Anthony Tan — CEO | Buy | ~$29.9M | The Grab Holdings CEO purchased 10,350,000 shares at $2.89 on September 21 — a nearly $30M open-market buy in his own Southeast Asian super-app, the same day the Nasdaq hit a new record. Tan has sold 2 million shares over the past six months but just bought back five times that amount in a single transaction. When a CEO buys $30M worth of his own stock at the start of a rate hiking cycle, the conviction is extraordinary. | |
Ryan Cohen — CEO | Buy | ~$26.4M | The GameStop CEO purchased additional shares this past week, continuing a pattern of accumulation that has defined his tenure. Cohen has now bought tens of millions in GME shares over the past year. Whatever one thinks of GameStop's business transformation, the CEO's willingness to deploy this much personal capital is a conviction signal that can't be dismissed. | |
Jack Hightower — Chairman | Buy | ~$8.28M | The HighPeak Energy chairman purchased 500,000 shares at $16.57 — his second major buy this year, following co-founder DeJoria's $69M purchase in July. The stock is already up 7% since. Two insiders deploying a combined $77M+ into a Permian Basin producer while oil trades near $92 is one of the most concentrated energy insider bets of 2026. |
📬 Closing Note
The 10-year yield hit 5.18% this week — the highest since the global financial crisis. The Fed is hiking. Oil is above $92. Consumer sentiment is at a four-month low. Gas is at $4.50. And the S&P 500 gained 1.2%.
This is either the most resilient market in a generation or the most complacent. Right now, the data supports resilience: corporate earnings are growing 25%+, AI demand is accelerating, and the labour market — while cooling — hasn't collapsed. The AI trade isn't just a narrative anymore. It's generating the kind of revenue growth that allows the market to absorb rate hikes, yield surges, and consumer stress simultaneously.
But resilience has limits. The 10-year above 5% is repricing every asset in the economy. The consumer is under genuine pressure. And the Iran conflict — now in its seventh month — continues to keep oil elevated and inflation sticky.
What gives me cautious optimism heading into Q4 is Friday's Iran development. Tehran asking to return to the June MoU could be the first step toward a genuine resolution. If oil falls below $85, the inflation picture improves dramatically, rate hike pressure eases, and the market could push to new highs before year-end.
Stay patient. Stay selective. And let the data guide the story.
Until next Sunday —
