DC Goes Dark, But Markets Stay Bright

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👋 ICYMI

The U.S. government shutdown has delayed release of key economic reports, including the September jobs report and CPI. This comes at a critically noisy moment for markets and monetary policy. 

🔁 Market Movers

• 📈 S&P 500 Hits New Highs, Led by Key Names

  The S&P 500 reached fresh record highs this past week. Top contributors included Western Digital $WDC ( ▲ 0.04% ) , Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 2.14% ) , Bio-Techne $TECH ( ▲ 1.39% ) , Charles River Labs $CRL ( ▲ 1.12% ) , and FICO $FICO ( ▲ 3.7% ) , with FICO surging ~20% after pricing model change. 

• 🏛️ TXSE Approved — A New U.S. Stock Exchange in Dallas

  The SEC approved the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE), aiming for a 2026 launch backed by firms like BlackRock $BLK ( ▲ 0.01% ) and Charles Schwab $SCHW ( ▲ 1.49% ) . It seeks to attract growth, energy, and tech companies to a lower-cost listing venue.

• 💰 Massive Weekly Equity Inflows

  U.S. equity funds absorbed a net ~$36.4B in new capital last week, led by large-cap funds, as rate-cut optimism picked up.

• 🎮 EA Going Private in Historic Deal

  Electronic Arts agreed to go private in a $55B leveraged buyout by a consortium including Saudi PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners—marking one of the largest deals in gaming.

• 🌐 Tech Gains Lead Week Despite Shutdown

  Even in the face of the government shutdown, tech names outpaced broader markets as AI optimism and selective rotation lifted equities.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 🛑 Data Blackout & Fed Blind Spots

  The shutdown could leave the Fed making decisions in near darkness. Without nonfarm payrolls or CPI, policy shift risk rises.

• 📉 ADP Data Shows Job Loss

  Private payrolls fell 32,000 in September, highlighting a softening labor backdrop even before official data was delayed.

• 🏦 Jefferson’s Warning on Jobs Stress

  Fed Vice Chair Jefferson cautioned that the labor market could face renewed strain without continued policy support—keeping employment risks front and center.

• 🧠 AI Funding Frenzy Meets Reality Check

  Jeff Bezos and Goldman $GS ( ▲ 1.36% ) CEO David Solomon both warned last week of an “AI investment bubble.” The remarks echo rising concerns that valuations may be outpacing adoption, especially in enterprise and chip sectors.

• 📊 Magnificent 7 Regain Leadership

  Big tech reclaimed dominance this past week, led by Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.67% ) , Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 1.3% ) , and Meta $META ( ▼ 2.27% ) — all closing near all-time highs and accounting for over half of the S&P 500’s October gains.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Data dependency becomes a risk.

With the government shutdown obstructing official labor and inflation releases, markets and policymakers will increasingly lean on less authoritative private indicators. That amplifies the risk of policy missteps, surprise volatility, or backward revisions. The longer the blackout lasts, the greater the chance of a “blind cut” — making timing more hazardous than ever.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

→✨NEW ✨ My framework for reading insider moves — when buy signals outweigh noise (and when they don’t)

🚀IPO Watch

Fresh Debuts

• 🏭Fermi REIT $FRMI ( ▼ 0.63% ) — The data center infrastructure REIT co-founded by Rick Perry raised $682.5 million in its U.S. IPO, pricing 32.5 million shares at $21 each. It surged on debut, opening at $25 and closing above $32. 

🗓️Upcoming Offerings Or… Not

• 🚁Beta Technologies (BETA) — The electric aircraft / clean aviation startup filed for a U.S. IPO last week. Backed by Amazon, it has flown thousands of demonstration flights with its ALIA aircraft. 

• 💳Zelis Healthcare — The healthtech payments / claims provider has quietly filed for an IPO in Q1 2026, enlisting Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 0.81% ) as underwriters. 

• 👋Cerebras Systems — The AI chip maker withdrew its planned U.S. IPO after securing a large private funding round and dealing with regulatory complications. It still aims to go public in the future.

📬 Closing Note

We’re in an era where policy navigation requires sharper reading between the lines. The shutdown makes that harder. But that’s also where edge lives: you’re not predicting — you’re preparing. Lean into earnings, corporate fundamentals, and conviction signals. Be nimble, size consciously, and let volatility do the work for you.

Until next Sunday —

George