Green Lights Into December

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👋 ICYMI

Markets rallied this week as tech stocks rebounded on renewed optimism around rate cuts and strong earnings from AI-linked companies. 

At the same time, U.S. industrial data showed signs of stress: manufacturing activity slowed to a four-month low as high prices and weak demand pressured factories, while consumer confidence fell to its weakest level since early 2022 amid inflation and economic uncertainty. 

Meanwhile, a fresh report from the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicated a softening labour market, with several districts seeing weaker hiring and reduced hours — a potential early warning for growth and consumer-spending strength.

🔁 Market Movers

• 📈 Tech Rebound Powers a Broad Rally

  Stocks rallied as AI-related names led a rebound, with markets embracing renewed rate-cut optimism and rotation back into growth.

• 💼 Corporate Equipment Investment Picks Up Steam

  Data from the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) showed U.S. business borrowing to finance equipment purchases rose 5.7% YoY in October, hinting that capital expenditure remains healthy even amid macro uncertainty. That boost could benefit industrial & infrastructure names in the coming quarters.

• 🏦 Global Equity Outflows Signal Risk-Off Sentiment

  Despite optimism over rate cuts, equity funds saw their first weekly outflow in six weeks — with U.S. equity funds losing roughly $4.56 billion. The exodus underscores a cautious rotation as investors weigh stretched valuations, especially in tech, against still-uncertain macro conditions.

• 🌐 European Defence Stocks Slide as Peace Hopes Rise

  Shares of major European arms-makers dropped again after progress in U.S.–Ukraine peace talks raised hopes that defence spending could shrink. The sell-off pulled down parts of European markets linked to military and defense value chains.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 🚀 AI Spending Isn’t Done Yet

  Nvidia’s strong quarter and bullish demand forecast suggest capital expenditures on AI-infrastructure and data centers remain robust, potentially giving tech and hardware suppliers more runway.

• 💰 Rate Cut Optimism vs. Inflation Uncertainty

  A wave of dovish comments by several Fed officials has boosted rate-cut expectations, but inflation and input-cost pressures remain uneven — creating a tug-of-war over Fed timing.

• 🌐 Global Demand Cooling

  Watch International Exposure — With signs of global growth slowing (notably Europe and parts of Asia), companies heavily exposed to export demand may face pressure if FX or commodity cycles shift.

• 🛒 Black Friday Spending Boom

  U.S. online spending hit a record high this Black Friday, with sales reaching ~$11.8 billion — a 9.1% increase from 2024 — signalling that consumer demand still has firepower even with inflation and economic concerns. 

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Markets are pricing in a December rate cut and leaning on AI earnings strength to justify valuations. But with consumer sentiment still shaky, manufacturing slowing, and global demand under pressure, a single unexpected inflation print or weak jobs number could wipe out recent gains — especially given how stretched many growth stocks have become.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

→✨NEW ✨ My framework for reading insider moves — when buy signals outweigh noise (and when they don’t)

📬 Closing Note

As ever, the real winners won’t be those chasing headlines — they’ll be the ones buying value in areas overlooked by the crowd. Keep alert. Stay selective. And above all: expect volatility, not complacency.

Until next Sunday —

George