Markets Get New Names, Apple Gets New Toys

👋 ICYMI

The August jobs report threw markets a wake-up: only 22,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, marking the weakest labor dynamics in nearly 4 years . With Fed officials acknowledging economic slowing, markets reacted by steepening the yield curve—pricing in a near-certain September rate cut.

🔁 Market Movers

• 🔒Rate Cuts Almost ‘Locked In’

  Fed futures now show a 97.6% chance of a September cut, pushing the yield curve into bullish steepening territory.

• 👍Fed Nominee Faces a Test
  Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick for the Fed, reiterated his support for central bank independence during his confirmation hearings—a nod of credibility amid political pressure

• 🤗S&P 500 Welcomes Three Big New Names
  AppLovin $APP ( ▼ 1.95% ), Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 1.61% ), and Emcor $EMKR ( ▲ 0.81% )  are set to join the S&P 500 before the open on September 22—replacing Caesars $CZR ( ▲ 2.29% ) , MarketAxess $MKTX ( ▲ 4.09% ) , and Enphase $ENPH ( ▲ 8.57% ) . This inclusion often triggers outsized demand from index-tracking funds.

• 🏠Mortgage Rates Plummet to 11-Month Low

  The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate tumbled 16 basis points to 6.29%, the lowest level in nearly a year—fueled by rising rate-cut bets and weak payroll data.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 😬Yield Curve Steepens
  Short-term rates fall faster than the 10-year, hinting at strong market confidence in swift rate easing.

• 😵‍💫Inflation Snags Could Still Rattle
  With PPI and CPI on deck next week, any upside surprise could derail cut expectations—creating a volatility flashpoint ahead of the Fed meeting.

• 🚢Tariff Opponents Push Back
  Legal challenges continue to muddy the outlook on trade policy, keeping inflation risk front and center.

• 🍎OPEC + Apple Steer the Week Ahead
  The iPhone 17 reveal and an OPEC+ meeting are set to influence sentiment. With Apple services growing and hardware refreshes on deck, the launch will be a key test of whether consumer demand can keep pace in a high-rate environment.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

S&P’s forward P/E sits at 22+, well above the historical average of ~16. That’s pricing in growth—and supply-chain clarity, rate cuts, and key earnings beats. Any miss could reset trade fast.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

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🚀IPO Watch

• 🌊 Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP)
  The AI-powered flood insurance company filed for a U.S. IPO aiming to list on the NYSE under the ticker “NP.” Backed by Triton, its proprietary underwriting engine, Neptune posted $119.3M in revenue and $34.6M in net income for 2024. The listing will test investor appetite for profitable insurtech after years of speculative plays.

• 🔍FutureCrest Acquisition Corp.
  A new SPAC targeting AI, Web3, and advanced tech infrastructure filed to raise $250M via IPO. The SPAC space has seen a slow revival in filings over the past two months—FutureCrest joins the wave of more sector-focused blank check companies looking to capitalize on niche growth markets.

📬 Closing Note

As rate cut bets intensify and Fed drama unfolds, the best edge isn’t prediction — it’s preparation.

Zoom out. Filter the noise. And stay sharp.

If you found today’s breakdown helpful, forward it to a friend who’s still trading headlines instead of real signals.

Until next Sunday —

George