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👋 ICYMI

The U.S. markets surged Friday as softer-than-expected September inflation figures rekindled hopes for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 rose ~0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite added ~1.2% as tech and banking names led the advance. 

🔁 Market Movers

• 🛢️ Oil Surge Amid Russia Sanctions Spurs Energy Rally

  U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants triggered a ~7% crude-price jump this week. Energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▼ 0.2% ) and Diamondback Energy $FANG ( ▼ 1.66% ) led the advance, while broader markets followed from the inflation-and-growth trade tilt. 

• 🌍 Market Breadth Widening — Not Just Big Tech

  According to Charles Schwab research $SCHW ( ▼ 0.79% ) , breadth expanded this week: the 200-day moving average participation in the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell indexes all climbed, suggesting more stocks are joining the rally.

• 🧮 Institutional Buying Surges in S&P 500 Stocks

  Large-volume trades in S&P 500 components reached ~$6.4 billion in buy imbalances on Friday—buy-pressure to sell-pressure ratio ~1.6x—signaling renewed conviction by large investors despite macro uncertainty.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 🔍 Inflation “Miss” Fuels Cut Odds

  The mild inflation print pushed the Fed’s first cut expectations closer.

• 📊 Earnings Breadth Deepens

  It’s not just mega-caps this time: banks, industrials, and healthcare are raising forecasts, broadening the strength.

• 🌍 Geopolitical Risk Returns

  Oil and trade shocks are reminding markets that disruption can reignite inflation and interest-rate risk.

• 🕰️ Regulatory & Data Blind Spots Persist

  With key agencies in shutdown mode, alternative data (credit, payments, drones) becomes more important—and more interpreted. Meanwhile, White House said no inflation data likely next month because of the federal shutdown.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

The oil price jump threatens to interrupt the disinflation narrative. With the Fed already under pressure, renewed inflation could force a policy recalibration—and valuations may not be built for that.  

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

→✨NEW ✨ My framework for reading insider moves — when buy signals outweigh noise (and when they don’t)

🚀IPO Watch

🗓️Upcoming Offerings

• 🥶IPO Pipeline Stalled by Shutdown

  With the U.S. government shutdown continuing and key regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) furloughed or operating at limited capacity, the IPO pipeline has effectively frozen. Many companies are delaying filings or listings due to regulatory uncertainty and approval delays.

📬 Closing Note

The best opportunities come when you focus not on the noise, but the signals driving it. Stay sharp, stay patient.

Until next Sunday —

George