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👋 ICYMI

U.S. markets endured a volatile week of trading as geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty rattled sentiment. After tariff threats from the U.S. administration sparked global sell-offs midweek — pushing the S&P 500 down more than 2% in one session and marking its worst day since late 2025 — markets rebounded modestly into the weekend after Trump’s latest U-turn supported risk assets. Gold and silver again hit record levels amid uncertainty, while global stocks diverged as safe sectors outperformed.

🔁 Market Movers

• 📉Trump Tariff Threats Trigger Equity Volatility

  On January 20, U.S. equities sold off sharply after President Trump threatened new tariffs on multiple European nations amid the Greenland dispute, hitting the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow with steep one-day losses — the largest since October 2025.

• 🟡 Safe-Haven Metals Rally Again

  Gold continued its historic rally, breaching fresh all-time highs as investors sought protection amid geopolitical risk and policy pressure uncertainty. Silver also climbed alongside gold, reflecting strong safe-haven demand.

• 📊 Canadian Stocks Hit Records on Gold Strength

  Despite global sell-offs, Canada’s TSX posted a record high, supported by mining and materials stocks benefiting from soaring gold prices and domestic inflation data that reinforced central-bank steadiness expectations.

• 📈 Earnings Season Drivers on the Horizon

  Investors shifted focus to an earnings week packed with major reports from tech and industrial leaders — including Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.47% ) , Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.74% ) , Meta $META ( ▼ 2.95% ) , and Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 3.33% ) — to glean direction on corporate profit trends and AI spending returns.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• ⚖️ Policy Uncertainty Is Pressuring Markets

  The threat of broad new tariffs against European allies and ongoing conflict over Federal Reserve leadership have pushed volatility higher and kept policy risk at the forefront of market pricing.

• 📈 Earnings Expectations Still Elevated

  S&P 500 earnings forecasts remain strong for early 2026, with major names expected to report growth and AI monetization commentary that could anchor sentiment if results exceed projections.

• 🪙 Safe-Haven Demand Reflects Risk Premium

  Gold’s repeated record highs show that despite bouts of stock strength, risk premiums remain elevated — especially amid geopolitical ambiguity and tariff escalation concerns.

• 💼 Global Divergence Offers Clues

  North American and Canadian markets have shown resilience in parts (e.g., TSX at records), even as European shares lag under tariff-related pressure, indicating a regionally diverging risk appetite.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Tariff Escalation Risk Threatens Growth Confidence

The sudden threat of broad tariffs on European trade — and potential retaliatory measures — highlights how quickly policy headlines can shift risk sentiment, especially when they involve major trading partners. Such escalations can pressure global growth expectations and trigger sharp rotational moves across asset classes.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

🚀 IPO Watch

🔔Newly listed

🪙BitGo Holdings $BTGO ( ▲ 11.94% ) — Crypto custody platform priced its IPO at $18 per share, raising about $212.8 M and debuting above its range, marking one of the first U.S. crypto IPOs of 2026.

📬 Closing Note

Last week reminded us that market stress often emerges from policy shocks and geopolitical headlines, even when fundamentals remain intact. Safe-haven rallies, divergence across regions, and looming earnings catalysts all tell a story of investors balancing risk and opportunity. Stay disciplined, watch catalysts closely, and maintain a portfolio that can navigate both volatility and growth into 2026.

Until next Sunday —

George