Oracle’s AI Backlog Breaks the Chart

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U.S. inflation surprised higher last week: headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY, while core CPI climbed to 3.1% YoY. At the same time, weekly jobless claims surged to their highest since 2021, reinforcing concerns that the labor market is softening faster than expected. The mix of hotter prices and weaker jobs underscores the Fed’s challenge of balancing persistently elevated price growth with a weakening jobs market ahead of a high-stakes decision on interest rates this week.

🔁 Market Movers

• 🚀 Oracle’s Earnings Shock
  Oracle’s $ORCL ( ▼ 5.09% ) cloud‑AI bets lit up the markets. Even though revenue ($14.9B) and adjusted EPS ($1.47) slightly missed Wall Street’s estimates, its guidance and massive AI backlog blew expectations out of the water. The RPO jumped from ~$138B last quarter to $455B, a growth of ~359%. Share price jumped over 35%+ post-earnings.

• ⚙️ Micron Technology Hits New High
  Strong demand for AI‑/data center memory drove Micron $MU ( ▲ 4.42% ) to record highs as analysts raised their price targets.

• 🚗 Tesla Surges on Rate Cut Optimism + Guidance Hopes
  Tesla had a strong week (~+12%) even without major company‑specific news, largely driven by hopes for easing rates.

• 📉 Netflix Stumbles
  Netflix dipped after the resignation of its Chief Product Officer, which raised questions over its strategy in combating password sharing and future content product direction.

• 🤔 Adobe Beats, But There’s A Catch
  Adobe beat expectations in its latest quarter, but here’s the catch: despite the beat + raise, Adobe’s share price barely budged (or dipped slightly) after the report. Analysts point to investor concerns that AI monetization—while promising—is still early, that competition (from Canva, OpenAI, Figma etc.) is increasing, and that the growth rate may not accelerate fast enough to justify its valuation.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 📉 Consumer Sentiment Drops
  The University of Michigan survey showed confidence falling in September, with households increasingly worried about job security and rising costs.

• 🏛️ Tariff Uncertainty
  Ongoing legal challenges around tariff policy could influence inflation in the months ahead, especially for consumer goods.

• 💪 Consumer Finances Still Resilient

  According to Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▲ 0.26% ) CFO, consumer finances are generally holding up: spending is decent, payment delinquency remains low, and credit behavior is better than feared given inflation and rate pressures. This resilience suggests downside risk from a consumer bust is not yet high.

• 🛍️ U.S. Retail Sales Show Resilience
  Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline rose 0.5% month-over-month and 6.8% year-over-year in August 2025, driven by back-to-school shopping and consumer efforts to purchase goods before new tariffs took effect.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Consumer Sectors Underperform Amid Tariff Pressures

As of September 2025, the consumer sectors—consumer staples and consumer discretionary—are facing challenges, underperforming the broader S&P 500 in earnings growth. These sectors are considered "unfavorable" by the Wells Fargo Investment Institute due to ongoing tariff impacts affecting consumer spending and corporate pricing strategies. Notably, Walmart's $WMT ( ▲ 0.82% ) stock tumbled in August after missing earnings expectations, attributed to efforts to shield consumers from tariff-related price increases.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

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🚀IPO Watch

• 🪙Figure Technology Solutions $FIGR ( ▲ 4.47% ) — The blockchain lender and stablecoin issuer raised ~$787.5M in its IPO last Thursday, with shares surging 24% on debut. The valuation lands around $6.9B. 

• 💳Klarna $KLAR ( ▲ 0.42% ) — The “buy now, pay later” fintech saw its IPO price set at $40, with shares surging 30%+ on debut before paring a sizable portion of those gains.

🗓️Upcoming Offerings

• 🏥Medline Industries — The large medical supplies distributor, owned by Blackstone, Carlyle and Hellman & Friedman, is preparing for an IPO. The target valuation is over $50B, and the raise could be $4-5B. The timing is set for late 2025 or early 2026. 

• 🚘Lendbuzz (LBZZ) — This fintech auto-loan platform, which uses AI to serve borrowers with weak or limited credit profiles, has filed to go public, revealing a 38% revenue surge. 

• 🛒Pattern (PTRN) — An e-commerce accelerator helping brands scale across platforms (Amazon, Walmart, etc.) is planning a U.S. IPO that could raise ~$320-$330M, with an implied valuation of up to $2.6B. 

• 🎟️StubHub (STUB) — The online ticket marketplace is set to go public, offering 34 million shares in a deal that could raise up to $850M and value the company around $9.2B. 

• 🧺Alliance Laundry (ALH) — Filed recently for a U.S. IPO. Revenues rose nearly 15% in H1 2025 (~$836.8M), though profits fell. The company is dominant in commercial laundry appliances. 

📬 Closing Note

We’re entering another exciting week with lots of moving parts. The potential reward for getting positioned right is meaningful—but so is the risk of getting caught leaning too hard under the conviction of a cut.

If you’re trading headlines, you may get whipsawed. If you’re investing long term, it pays to prepare for multiple scenarios.

Until next Sunday —
George