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Oracle + TikTok = New Era
From cloud to content, the deal shows how tech giants are broadening their reach.
George Babis
September 28, 2025
In partnership with
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👋 ICYMI
The Fed’s September meeting brought a 25 bps cut to 4.00%–4.25%, but the messaging split is deepening. Governor Michelle Bowman called for more aggressive cuts citing labor market fragility, while others remain cautious on persistent inflation. Meanwhile, August PCE inflation came in as expected: 2.7% annual, with core PCE steady at 2.9%, and consumer spending continues to surprise to the upside.
🔁 Market Movers
🖥️ Oracle’s TikTok Deal Lands
Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 2.7% ) is set to assume U.S. algorithm control in the newly arranged TikTok sale (~$14B deal), positioning itself as a gatekeeper in one of social media’s key platforms.
🧠 Micron Earnings Under Pressure
Despite upbeat AI demand, Micron’s stock pulled back following its report—with investors concerned about valuation stretch and memory cycle volatility.
📉 Markets Retrace From Peak
The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all posted weekly declines as Treasury yields crept higher and headline valuation risk resurfaced.
🏦 Fed Divergence Widens
The cut has revealed cracks in the Fed consensus. Some see urgency to ease faster, while hawks remain patient over inflation control.
💼 Megadeals Amid Quiet M&A Count
Deal value is rising even as deal count falls—private equity and VC are consolidating bets into fewer, larger wagers.
👀 Signals I’m Watching
🏃 Bowman’s Pivot Toward Labor Risks
With her vocal push for faster easing, Bowman’s views may carry sway in upcoming rate debates.
🔄 Really, How Many Cuts Left?
Markets are pricing in a few more cuts; some Fed officials and external observers (e.g. Citadel CEO) now expect only one more cut this year.
📦 Logistics & Freight Demand Firming
FedEx’s strong earnings beat and upbeat guidance highlight resilient parcel demand. Despite trade uncertainty, transport and logistics strength suggest the U.S. consumer and industrial backbone is sturdier than headlines imply.
📈 Earnings Growth Broadening Beyond Big Tech
FactSet shows upward revisions aren’t just about megacaps anymore — industrials, financials, and healthcare are also surprising to the upside.
🚗 Last week, Premium members got my full breakdown on Root Insurance $ROOT ( ▲ 1.42% ) — one of the most fascinating turnaround stories in the public markets. I unpacked how its embedded distribution strategy, improving underwriting metrics, and revenue acceleration could re-rate the stock beyond its “niche insurtech” label.
⚠️ Red Flag to Note
IPO fatigue setting in.
After a flurry of September listings, investor appetite is showing cracks. StubHub $STUB ( ▼ 5.76% ) fell more than 27% in its first week, and Pattern $PTRN ( ▲ 8.81% ) also opened below its issue price. With multiple high-profile offerings queued up, the risk is that oversupply + valuation pushback cools the broader IPO window. That could limit exit paths for VCs and dent sentiment in growth equities.
🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching
Ticker | Insider | Action | Value | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CEO / President Michael N. Intrator | Sell | ~$10.7M | CEO exit of this magnitude draws attention—whether profit-taking, rebalancing, or signaling a change in risk tolerance. | |
Pattern Holdings LP KL — a 10% owner | Buy | ~$3.86M | The fact these purchases are after the IPO and amid volatile debut performance adds credibility and insider conviction. | |
Koopmans Chris, President & COO | Buy | ~$0.53M | A mid-level executive buying in a large semiconductor / tech name is interesting — it hints at internal belief in near-term growth from operations. |
🚀IPO Watch
Fresh Debuts
💳Klarna $KLAR ( ▼ 3.76% ) — The Swedish BNPL fintech popped on debut but has since retraced a chunk of its initial gains. Analysts are split: bulls see Klarna as a global payments disruptor, while skeptics question profitability under high-rate regimes.
🔗Figure Technology Solutions $FIGR ( ▼ 2.68% ) — Raised ~$787M and traded up on day one, validating investor appetite for blockchain-driven fintech. The stock is holding modestly above offer, making it one of the few fintech IPOs with post-debut stability.
🛡️Netskope $NTSK ( ▲ 6.74% ) — Cloud security firm raised ~$908M and drew strong institutional interest, but performance since listing has been choppy, showing how crowded the AI-cybersecurity narrative is.
🗓️Upcoming Offerings
🏥Medline Industries — Healthcare supply giant prepping for a late-2025/early-2026 float. At $50B+, this could be the largest IPO of the year, if markets remain supportive.
📬 Closing Note
We’re in a regime of uncertain moderation—rate cuts have begun, but the next ones come with nuance. Inflation is holding, labor is softening, and yield behavior is ambidextrous. The best edge: focus on companies with pricing power, predictability, and structural tailwinds from AI / platform leverage—not fleeting momentum.
Until next Sunday —
George