Summer Rally, Autumn Test

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👋 ICYMI

Markets paused their August rally, reacting to stable-but-not-weak inflation and caution over Fed policy. Core PCE held at 2.9% YoY, reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut, but tech stocks sagged as investors digested earnings and cooling momentum. Large-cap value and broad participation (via equal-weight indices) are keeping U.S. equity performance intact — even as jitters over Fed independence and weaker payroll data hint at incoming volatility.

🔁 Market Movers

• 📈 S&P Rallies Despite Tech Pullback

  With tech giants easing off their recent highs, broad strength in non-tech sectors helped the S&P 500 climb back toward record levels on Thursday, showing that market upside isn’t hinging solely on AI leaders.

• 🛑 U.S. Market Faces Rising Concentration Risk
  Mega-cap tech now commands nearly 34% of the S&P 500, echoing dot-com-era concentration. Such dominance—combined with $2.4 trillion traded daily in index options—amplifies volatility risks tied to a few names.

• 🧑‍⚖️ Tariff Blowback Looms — But Shadowed by Legal Uncertainty
  A federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s global tariffs illegal—but they remain in effect until mid-October as the case heads to the Supreme Court. The ruling adds a layer of complexity to trade-related inflation expectations.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 💻 Tech Poised for a Rate-Cut Rebound
  With Fed cuts 87% priced in for September, technology could be the leader in the next catapult—if data holds.

• 🛡️Investors Stay Defensive
  While equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw moderate inflows (~$571M) last week, bond funds attracted robust demand with $5.6 billion in net inflows, especially into investment-grade and money market assets.

• 😒Consumer Sentiment Cools Sharply
  Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 58.2 in August—a notable slide from July’s 61.7. Expectations for inflation and concerns around prices spiked, suggesting rising wariness among households.

• 💵 U.S. Dollar Slides as Rate-Cut Bets Intensify
  The U.S. Dollar Index dropped by 2% in August, pulled lower by growing expectations of a September rate cut and political uncertainty eroding confidence in Fed independence.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Fed Independence Under Strain

President Trump’s controversial firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook—widely seen as an effort to politicize central banking—has rattled confidence. Despite market calm, analysts warn that undermining the Fed’s autonomy could reheat inflation and destabilize long-term bond markets, as seen in bond volatility and gold’s rally to two-week highs.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

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🚀IPO Watch

• 🏫Phoenix Education Partners (PXED)
  Apollo-backed operator of the University of Phoenix filed for IPO. The firm reported $750M in revenue and $118M in net income for the nine months ended May 31, up from $710M and $105M the prior year. It’s slated to list on the NYSE under ticker “PXED.”

• 💳Klarna

  The fintech powerhouse is expected to kick off September with its U.S. IPO. Recent SEC updates suggest an amended filing is near, and its valuation could hit up to $15B, fueled by its rare profitability in the BNPL space.

• 🇺🇸American Bitcoin

  The Trump-backed crypto miner is filing for a September IPO. Co-owned by Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, this listing aims to tap into the surging crypto sector momentum.

• 🔍Rice Acquisition Corp I

  The new SPAC filed to raise $250M targeting acquisitions in digital assets, Web3, blockchain infrastructure, and fintech. A sign that SPAC activity is reviving.

📬 Closing Note

Markets reward those who look past noise—whether it’s insiders buying, IPOs filing, or signals flashing green.

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