Tariffs Return While Washington Sleeps

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👋 ICYMI

The U.S. government shutdown is now in its second week, and the effects are rippling across markets. Key regulators (like the SEC) have furloughed staff, delaying IPO reviews and regulatory actions.

🔁 Market Movers

• 💥 Friday Selloff as Tariff Tensions Return

  Markets ended the week sharply lower after the U.S. and China exchanged new tariff threats. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% on Friday, marking its worst single-day performance since April, as investors priced in renewed trade and supply chain risk. Semiconductor and industrial names led the decline, while safe-haven demand boosted Treasuries.

• 💸 CoreWeave Insiders Cash Out

  After their lock-up expired, CoreWeave insiders sold more than $1B in shares. Director Jack Cogen and co-founder Brannin McBee each sold $400M+ under prearranged 10b5-1 plans.

• ✈️ Flight Delays Mount Due to Controller Shortages

  The shutdown is taking a toll on air travel: air traffic controller furloughs have triggered multi-hour delays across major U.S. hubs.

• 🛠️ Regulator Closures Threaten IPO / ETF Flow

  With SEC and CFTC teams furloughed, crucial approvals for new listings and ETFs are frozen—stalling pipelines and dampening sentiment.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 🔍 Prediction Markets See a Prolonged Shutdown

  Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket now put >50% odds on the government shutdown lasting over 3 weeks

• 🌍 EM Inflows Dry Up

  Foreign portfolio inflows into emerging markets fell to ~$26B in September, the weakest month since May—raising questions about investor appetite abroad. 

• 🪙 Measured Bitcoin Selling by “Smart” Investors

  Around ~6,000 BTC/day are being sold, interpreted not as panic but strategic profit-taking by sophisticated holders.

• 📊 Crosscurrents in U.S. Macro Indicators

  The U.S. economy is showing conflicting signals — softening job metrics vs resilient consumer data — making the Fed’s path forward more ambiguous.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Tariff tail risk.

Renewed trade conflict headlines have re-entered the macro picture. While rhetoric may fade, even a short-lived tariff scare can dent earnings sentiment — particularly for automakers, semiconductors, and logistics names exposed to China-U.S. flows.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

→✨NEW ✨ My framework for reading insider moves — when buy signals outweigh noise (and when they don’t)

🚀IPO Watch

🗓️Upcoming Offerings

• 🤝 Navan - The corporate travel and expense firm Navan has filed to go public, targeting a valuation of around $6.45B and a raise of ~$960M. 

• 🛩️ Beta Technologies — Amazon-backed electric aircraft firm filed confidentially for IPO, targeting early 2026 listing.

📬 Closing Note

Stay patient, stay focused — and remember, volatility is opportunity in disguise.

Until next Sunday —

George