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The $1.75 Trillion IPO That Could Change Markets Forever
Nvidia explodes higher, SpaceX files, and Wall Street enters a new era.
George Babis
May 24, 2026
👋 ICYMI
The S&P 500 posted its eighth consecutive weekly gain — the longest winning streak since late 2023 — closing Friday at 7,476 after rising roughly 18% from its war-fueled March lows. The Dow hit a fresh all-time record high on both Thursday and Friday, closing at 50,580, while the Nasdaq gained 0.4%.
The week's defining moment came Wednesday evening when Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 1.9% ) reported Q1 results that once again exceeded every expectation. Revenue of $81.62 billion — up 69% year over year — beat the $79.19 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS of $1.87 topped the $1.77 estimate. And Q2 guidance of $89.2–$92.8 billion came in well above forecasts. Nvidia shares swung in a range equivalent to roughly $350 billion in market cap — larger than the entire market value of about 90% of S&P 500 companies. The ripple effect was enormous: SoftBank surged over 20% across Thursday and Friday, and Arm Holdings $ARM ( ▲ 2.78% ) jumped roughly 31% in two sessions.
On the same evening, SpaceX filed its S-1 with the SEC — the most anticipated IPO filing in a generation. The company is targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX with a June 12 debut, seeking to raise up to $75 billion at a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion. If completed at scale, it would be the largest IPO in history — more than doubling Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion record.
And on Friday morning, Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve at the White House, with Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas administering the oath. Markets now enter a new era of monetary policy leadership — with money markets fully pricing in at least one rate hike this year.
Geopolitically, momentum shifted toward peace. A Qatari diplomatic team flew into Tehran in coordination with the U.S. to help secure an agreement to end the Iran conflict. Oil slipped below $100 on Brent by midweek before rebounding to $109 on Friday after Trump told Fox News he would "not be much more patient" with Iran.
🔁 Market Movers
🤖 Nvidia Crushes Q1 — Revenue Up 69%, Guidance Blows Past Estimates
Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of $81.62 billion (+69% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.87, both above consensus. Adjusted gross margin held at 75%. Q2 revenue guidance of $89.2–$92.8 billion exceeded analyst estimates of roughly $84 billion. CEO Jensen Huang — who travelled with Trump to Beijing the week prior — called AI demand "the most powerful technology force of our time." The stock was up 19.2% year to date heading into the report, versus 8.6% for the S&P 500.
🚀 SpaceX Files S-1 — Largest IPO in History Approaches
SpaceX filed its public prospectus on May 20, confirming a Nasdaq listing under ticker SPCX with a roadshow starting approximately June 8 and a potential pricing date of June 12. The filing revealed combined 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion across SpaceX, Starlink, and xAI (which merged into SpaceX in February 2026). Starlink alone has over 10 million subscribers. The S-1 showed a Q1 2026 net loss of $4.28 billion, driven by the xAI integration. Elon Musk controls 42% of equity and 85% of voting power. Lead underwriters include Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 0.87% ) , Morgan Stanley $MS ( ▲ 0.26% ) , BofA $BAC ( ▲ 0.6% ) , Citi $C ( ▼ 0.1% ) , and JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 1.12% ) . Notably, 30% of the offering is earmarked for retail investors — three times the typical allocation for a mega-cap IPO.
🏛 Kevin Warsh Sworn In as Fed Chair
Warsh took the oath on Friday morning at the White House. He inherits a deeply divided FOMC, inflation running at 3.5% on headline PCE, a 30-year yield above 5%, and money markets pricing in a rate hike this year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said this week he supports making clear that the next rate move is "just as likely to be a raise as a cut". Warsh's first policy statement is expected at the June FOMC meeting.
📈 Eighth Straight Weekly Gain — Longest Since 2023
The S&P 500's 18% rally from its March low is now the longest uninterrupted weekly winning streak since December 2023. The Dow hit fresh records on Thursday and Friday. Consumer sentiment remains at near-record lows, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.8% and long-run expectations climbing to 3.9%. The gap between market euphoria and consumer anxiety continues to widen.
👀 Signals I'm Watching
🚀 The SpaceX IPO Will Reshape the Market
If SpaceX prices at anything close to $75 billion raised, it instantly becomes one of the most consequential capital markets events in history. The filing has already repriced the entire space sector — Satellogic $SATL ( ▲ 10.06% ) is up 407% YTD, Planet Labs 110% $PL ( ▲ 4.4% ) , Rocket Lab 76% $RKLB ( ▲ 8.22% ) . But the S-1 also reveals a complex financial picture: a $4.28 billion Q1 loss, three fundamentally different businesses (launch, Starlink, xAI) bundled into one ticker, and 85% of voting power in one person's hands. The roadshow begins June 8. This will dominate market attention for the next three weeks.
📊 Money Markets Are Now Pricing a Rate Hike
This is a major shift. Fed Governor Waller's comments that the next move could be a hike, combined with two-year yields hitting their highest since February 2025, mean the market has fully moved on from rate cut expectations. Under new Chair Warsh — a known hawk — the probability of a 2026 rate hike has gone from joke to consensus in under two months. This repricing has not yet fully filtered into equity valuations.
🕊 Qatar's Intervention Could Be the Peace Breakthrough
A Qatari team flying into Tehran in coordination with Washington is the most credible diplomatic effort since the ceasefire began. Qatar successfully mediated the Hamas hostage negotiations in 2023–24 and has deep relationships with both Tehran and Washington. If these talks produce a lasting peace framework, the remaining war premium in oil, yields, and volatility could unwind rapidly — potentially sending the S&P 500 toward Wall Street's median year-end target of 7,650.
⚠️ The SOX Is Up 65% YTD — Burry's Warning Persists
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a fresh all-time high this week. Michael Burry compared its recent chart to the run-up before the March 2000 crash. Nvidia's blowout results make the Burry comparison harder to sustain on fundamentals — this time the earnings are real. But at a forward P/E above 35x for the sector, the question isn't whether AI demand is real. It's whether pricing already reflects several years of it.
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⚠️ Red Flag to Note
Consumer Sentiment and Market Sentiment Are Diverging Further
The University of Michigan's long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in May — the highest since 1993 and well above the Fed's 2% target. One-year expectations sit at 4.8%. Consumers are expecting the worst inflation in 30 years. The stock market is at all-time highs. Gas is above $4. The 30-year yield just printed its highest close since 2007. And the new Fed Chair is a hawk. Something has to give. Either consumers are wrong and inflation fades (bullish for stocks), or consumers are right and the market hasn't priced it in yet. The March CPI report already showed headline inflation jumping from 2.4% to 3.3% in a single month. If the next few readings confirm the trend, the equity market's implicit assumption that inflation is "transitory" will be tested severely.
🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching
Ticker | Insider | Action | Value | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Casdin Partners (Eli Casdin) — Director & 10%+ Owner | Buy | ~$21.5M | Casdin Partners purchased 500,000 shares of GeneDx Holdings across three days (May 18–20) at roughly $42–$44 per share. GeneDx is a genomics diagnostics company that has rallied strongly this year. A director with a 10%+ stake adding $21.5M in a single week signals deep conviction in the company's trajectory. | |
Energy Holding Corp — 10%+ Owner | Buy | ~$26.9M (cumulative, 6 months) | The controlling shareholder of Tecnoglass purchased another 80,879 shares ($3.3M) on May 14, extending a six-month accumulation totalling $26.9M across seven purchases. Tecnoglass is a building materials company with strong U.S. exposure. Persistent insider buying at this scale in an industrial name suggests confidence in the construction and infrastructure cycle. | |
Bobbili Raja — Director & 10%+ Owner | Buy | ~$1.3M (May 19–21) | The ContextLogic director purchased 150,000 shares across three days at roughly $8.50–$8.80. Combined with prior purchases, Raja has now bought over $16.4M of ContextLogic shares in six months with zero sales. This kind of sustained, one-directional accumulation by a major shareholder in a small-cap name is one of the strongest insider signals the market produces. |
📬 Closing Note
Nvidia delivered. SpaceX filed. Warsh was sworn in. Peace talks advanced. And the S&P 500 extended its winning streak to eight weeks.
If you'd told most investors in mid-March — when the S&P 500 was in correction, oil was above $112, and consumer sentiment was collapsing — that the market would be at all-time highs and an 18% rally just two months later, very few would have believed it.
But that's exactly what happened. And it happened for reasons that are now clear in hindsight: corporate earnings grew 25%. AI infrastructure demand accelerated. The war, while not over, stopped getting worse. And the trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines — Buffett's $350 billion, money market funds north of $6 trillion — started flowing back into equities.
The question now is what comes next. SpaceX's IPO could inject a wave of new capital and enthusiasm into markets. Warsh's first policy moves will set the tone for the next phase of monetary policy. And the Iran talks — now mediated by Qatar — could finally produce the lasting resolution that markets have been pricing in for weeks.
But the risks are real. Inflation expectations are at 30-year highs. The bond market is pricing rate hikes. Consumer sentiment is near record lows. And the S&P 500 is trading at 21x forward earnings after an 18% surge.
The best investors don't try to predict every turn. They stay positioned, stay informed, and stay honest about what they don't know.
Stay patient. Stay selective. And let the data guide the story.
Until next Sunday —