The Tech Chill After the Boom

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Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? (95.2% Accurate Forecast)

NVIDIA officially reports earnings November 19, but you can get a sneak peek right now.

Not just for NVIDIA, but for dozens of public companies.

On Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market (with verified 95.2% accuracy), you can see what top forecasters believe will happen.

Our new Earnings Markets let you:

• See real-time odds of NVIDIA beating estimates

• Predict what executives will say on earnings calls

• Profit directly from being right, regardless of stock price movement

• Trade simple Yes/No outcomes instead of complex options

Will Jensen stun Wall Street again?

Or is the AI trade finally cooling off?

Top forecasters are already positioning.

See Latest Earnings Forecasts

👋 ICYMI

Markets stumbled this week as Big Tech shares dragged, despite earlier optimism. The S&P 500 fell ~1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled ~3%, as tech heavyweights such as Nvidia Corporation $NVDA ( ▲ 0.04% ) (-7%), and Microsoft Corporation $MSFT ( ▼ 0.06% ) (-4%) weighed on the market. The downturn came amid renewed worries about inflated tech valuations and a lack of fresh economic data due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

🔁 Market Movers

• 📉 Tech Stocks Slip as Easing Hopes Fade
  The pull-back in major technology names undermined the broader market this week, as investor hopes for Fed easing dimmed. Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon were key drags.

• 🗓️ Earnings Calendar Bulges Ahead
  With earnings reports from dozens of companies this week (including tech, healthcare, fintech), investors remain alert for surprises as macro data remains scarce.

• 🌍 Economic Uncertainty Grows with Missing Data & Shutdown
  The continued government shutdown is delaying key economic releases, which has raised concern about the clarity of the Fed’s policy path and the underlying economy.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 📊 Market Breadth Weakens
  Technical signals show falling participation beneath the surface, with indexes losing breadth even as some large caps hold up.

• 💼 Tech Valuation Risk Returns
  The scale of recent tech cap-ex and AI investment is impressive—but investors are asking when the spending will turn into earnings growth.

• ⏳ Data Vacuum Creates Blind Spots
  With economic reports delayed and hiring freezes increasing, there’s less visibility into the real economy—raising the chance of a surprise.

• 🧮 Crowded Trades Face Reversal Risk
  Tech and AI trades remain crowded. In a market where optimism is high but confirmation is low, reversals can occur fast.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Markets are rallying on hope, not new proof. With data releases delayed and major tech valuations stretched, the risk of a sharp pull-back is elevated. A smaller than expected earnings beat—or negative corporate outlook—could trigger outsized moves given positioning.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

→✨NEW ✨ My framework for reading insider moves — when buy signals outweigh noise (and when they don’t)

🚀IPO Watch

🗓️Recent IPOs

• 🧠 Exzeo Group ($XZO) — The insurtech firm raised $168 million, priced at $21/share this week ($20–22 range) with valuation of ~$1.9 billion.

• 🧬 BillionToOne ($BLLN) — Precision-genomics company raised ~$273 million in its IPO this week, with shares opening well above the offer; valuation hit ~$5.8 billion.

• 💊 Evommune ($EVMN) — The clinical-stage biotech developing therapies for inflammatory and autoimmune diseases priced its IPO this week at $16/share for ~9.4 million shares, raising ~$150 million.

📬 Closing Note

The rally remains intact—but its foundation is under-tested. With tech pulling back, lack of fresh macro data, and investor positioning elevated, now isn’t the time for complacency. Focus on companies that deliver—not just promise—and keep your reserves ready for volatility.

Until next Sunday —

George