The Week Everything Moved at Once

👋 ICYMI

This past week may have been the most consequential for markets in 2026 so far. The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalated sharply, sending Brent crude above $112 per barrel after Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields operated by foreign companies and drones struck two refineries in Kuwait. Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted.

🔁 Market Movers

• 🛢 Oil Surges Past $112 as Middle East Conflict Deepens

  The Strait of Hormuz, responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows, remains effectively closed to tanker traffic. The IEA estimates more than 3 million barrels per day of regional refining capacity has already shut due to attacks and a lack of export outlets. The U.S. is reportedly assembling a naval coalition to escort ships through the strait, but the timeline and feasibility remain uncertain.

• 🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Outlook

  The Federal Reserve voted 11–1 to keep rates unchanged, with Governor Miran the lone dissenter favouring a 25 basis point cut. The updated Summary of Economic Projections raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% while modestly lifting GDP growth to 2.4%. Powell acknowledged that the implications of the Middle East conflict for the U.S. economy are uncertain and noted limited progress on inflation. Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 0.5% ) still sees room for two normalisation cuts in 2026, although market pricing has shifted dramatically hawkish.

• 🥇 Gold Posts Worst Week Since 1983

  Gold crashed roughly 10% over the week — its steepest weekly decline in over four decades — as a surging dollar, rising yields, and evaporating rate-cut expectations hammered non-yielding assets. Despite active geopolitical conflict, the typical safe-haven bid for gold was overwhelmed by liquidity-driven selling and institutional portfolio rebalancing. Gold briefly fell below $4,500, and analysts described the decline as a pricing logic adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend. Silver also recorded its third straight losing week with a decline of more than 12%.

• 💻 Nvidia GTC Powers Through the Noise

  Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.28% ) held its annual GTC developer conference this past week, with CEO Jensen Huang announcing that purchase orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems could total $1 trillion through 2027 — doubling the company's prior estimate. Nvidia unveiled its Groq 3 Language Processing Unit — its first chip from the $20 billion Groq asset acquisition — alongside the NemoClaw platform for enterprise AI agents. The company also expanded autonomous driving partnerships with Uber $UBER ( ▼ 1.93% ) , Nissan, BYD, and Hyundai (CNBC). Despite the bullish announcements, Nvidia shares still declined on the week as the broader selloff overwhelmed sentiment.

• 📊 Micron Smashes Estimates but Market Shrugs

  Micron $MU ( ▼ 4.81% ) reported fiscal Q2 results that crushed expectations — revenue nearly tripled year over year to $23.86 billion, with adjusted EPS of $12.20 versus the $9.31 consensus. The company guided for roughly $33.5 billion in Q3 revenue, far above estimates. Management cited AI-driven memory demand as a structural, multi-year tailwind and noted that volume production of HBM4 for Nvidia's Vera Rubin started in the fiscal first quarter. Despite the blowout results, the stock fell nearly 4% on Thursday as broader market weakness weighed on sentiment and investors focused on forward guidance.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• ⚖️ The Fed Is Boxed In — And Knows It

  The Fed's latest projections reveal the policy dilemma in full: inflation running hotter than hoped, growth still uncertain, and an oil shock that risks fueling both problems simultaneously. Powell's comment that the central bank hasn't made as much progress on inflation as it would like was the most hawkish signal of the week. CME FedWatch data shows market participants now expect no rate cuts at all in 2026, with some traders even pricing in a potential hike.

•  📉Fourth Straight Weekly Decline Signals Regime Change

  The S&P 500 has now fallen for four consecutive weeks — its longest losing streak since March 2025 — and is down 6.77% from its all-time high set on January 27. The index has broken below its 200-day moving average, dip-buying has evaporated, and the Russell 2000 has officially entered correction territory. JPMorgan $JPM ( ▼ 0.49% ) slashed its 2026 S&P 500 year-end target from 7,500 to 7,200 and warned the index could fall to 6,000 in a downside scenario.

• 🤖AI Demand Remains Strong Underneath the Noise

  Despite the broader market selloff, the AI investment cycle continues to accelerate. Nvidia's $1 trillion order visibility through 2027, Micron's record revenue and guidance above $33 billion, and continued hyperscaler spending all point to structural demand that has not been derailed by geopolitical risks. Micron is the only stock among the ten most valuable U.S. tech companies that is up year to date. The market is simply unwilling to pay for growth stories while macro uncertainty dominates.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Stagflation Risk Has Moved From Theory to Price

With oil above $100, inflation expectations climbing, rate cuts off the table, and GDP forecasts being revised lower, the stagflationary backdrop that markets began worrying about in early March has now been partially priced in. The Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate for Q1 2026 fell to 2.3% from the prior 2.7%, and Moody's chief economist has put recession odds near 49%. The danger is that the market has only partially priced this in. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the summer and oil stays above $100, the Fed may face the politically agonizing choice of hiking rates into economic weakness — a scenario that historically produces the sharpest equity drawdowns.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

📬 Closing Note

This past week tested investor resolve in a way that most of 2025 never did.

Not long ago, the dominant conversation was AI spending, tech valuations, and when the Fed would cut next. Now the headlines are about oil shocks, military escalation, a hawkish Fed, and gold in freefall.

But this is what markets do — they shift between narratives with speed and force. The investors who navigate these transitions successfully are usually the ones who resist anchoring to the last story and instead focus on what the data is actually saying.

The data right now says: inflation is sticky, oil is a problem, and the Fed is unlikely to help anytime soon. But it also says that AI infrastructure demand is accelerating, corporate balance sheets remain broadly healthy, and some of the sharpest insider buying of the year is happening at these exact levels.

Volatility doesn't mean the market is broken. It means the market is repricing — and that's usually where opportunity begins.

Stay patient. Stay selective. And let the data guide the story.

Until next Sunday —

George ☕