The Week SpaceX Changed Everything

👋 ICYMI

If last week was about the streak snapping, this week was about SpaceX $SPCX ( ▲ 19.22% ) .

Elon Musk's rocket company began trading on the Nasdaq on Friday under the ticker SPCX after raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion post-money valuation — shattering Saudi Aramco's record to become the largest initial public offering in history. Priced at $135, the stock opened at $150, surged as high as $176, and closed its first session at $161 — up 19%. MSCI immediately announced it would add SpaceX to its Large-Cap and Standard indexes starting Friday.

But the path to Friday's celebration was anything but smooth. On Tuesday, Trump teased new strikes against Iran, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sharply lower. On Wednesday, the Dow plunged 953 points (1.87%) — its worst day since April — as the U.S. signalled further military action. Then on Thursday, everything reversed: Trump and Iran signalled a deal was close, and the Dow surged 930 points — a near-perfect mirror of Wednesday's drop. The S&P 500 jumped 1.75% to 7,394 and the Nasdaq rallied 2.54%.

For the full week, the S&P 500 closed at 7,431, the Dow at 51,202, and the Nasdaq at 25,889 — all finishing remarkably close to where they started despite two 900-point Dow swings in opposite directions within 24 hours.

The FIFA World Cup kicked off on Wednesday in 16 U.S. cities, bringing an estimated $5 billion in economic activity and potentially explaining the strong May jobs number that triggered last Friday's selloff.

🔁 Market Movers

• 🚀 SpaceX IPOs at $135, Closes at $161 — Largest Debut Ever

  SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares at $135, raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation — more than doubling Aramco's prior record. The stock opened at $150, hit $176 intraday, and settled at $161 (+19%). Notably, 20% of shares were allocated to retail investors — two times the typical mega-cap IPO allocation, but down from earlier estimates of 30%, as it was adjusted to accommodate strong demand from institutional buyers. Oppenheimer initiated coverage with a $190 target, implying 40% upside from the IPO price. With only a 4% free float and MSCI index inclusion starting immediately after the IPO, structural demand from index funds will drive price action in the coming weeks.

• 📉 Dow Swings 900 Points in Both Directions Within 24 Hours

  Wednesday's 953-point Dow selloff on Iran strike signals was almost perfectly reversed by Thursday's 930-point rally on peace deal optimism. This kind of intraday volatility — with the VIX still above 20 and the Iran conflict unresolved — is characteristic of markets that are caught between powerful opposing forces: peace optimism and earnings strength pulling up, and rate fears and geopolitical risk pulling down.

• 💻 Oracle Drops 8% on $20 Billion AI Raise

  Oracle fell 8.6% on Thursday after announcing plans to raise $20 billion in equity and debt to fund its AI infrastructure buildout. The announcement highlighted a growing tension in the AI trade: investors want companies to spend aggressively on AI infrastructure, but they punish the dilution and leverage required to do so. Oracle is up 21% year to date despite the drop.

• 🛢 Oil Drops Below $85 — Lowest Since February

  Brent crude settled at $84.29 on Friday, down nearly 25% from its March high of $112, as Iran peace signals and the prospect of Strait of Hormuz normalization eased supply fears. Gas prices nationally have started to decline from their $4.22 peak but remain well above pre-war levels.

👀 Signals I'm Watching

• 🏛 The Fed Meets Wednesday — Warsh's First Statement

  Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting on June 17–18. The market expects rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%, but all eyes will be on the statement language and Warsh's press conference. With May payrolls at 172K (double expectations), headline inflation at 3.3%, and the 30-year yield above 5%, the question is whether Warsh signals that the next move is a hike rather than a cut. His tone will likely define the summer for both equities and bonds.

• 🚀 SpaceX's Index Inclusion Creates Structural Demand

  MSCI adding SpaceX to its indexes starting Friday means index funds and ETFs must begin buying. With only a 4% free float, even modest index-driven demand could push the stock significantly higher in the near term. But the S-1 revealed a $4.28 billion Q1 net loss, driven by xAI integration costs, and S&P 500 inclusion is not on the horizon given profitability requirements. SpaceX's first public earnings, expected in November, will be the true valuation anchor.

• 📊 Tech at 39% of the S&P 500 — Highest Concentration on Record

  The technology sector now represents over 39% of the S&P 500's market capitalization — the highest level in history, surpassing even the dot-com era peak. With SpaceX's addition to indexes, this concentration will only grow. This isn't necessarily bearish — earnings are backing the valuations — but it means that any rotation out of tech would have an outsized impact on the index.

• 🕊 Iran Deal "Close" — But "Close" Has Been Wrong Before

  Trump and Iran signalled Thursday that a deal is near, triggering a 930-point Dow rally. But similar signals in April were followed by a ceasefire that collapsed within days. The market has priced in peace multiple times this year, only to be disappointed. If a deal materialises, oil could fall to $70 and the S&P 500 could challenge 7,600 again. If talks break down, the Iran premium that's been fading could return swiftly.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

The IPO Window Is Open — History Says That’s a Late-Cycle Signal

SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO, combined with Cerebras’s $CBRS ( ▼ 5.54% ) 68% first-day pop, monthly IPO proceeds at post-pandemic highs, and Anthropic reportedly planning its own listing, marks the most active IPO window since 2021. Historically, IPO booms tend to cluster near market peaks — not because IPOs cause declines, but because companies rush to go public when valuations are most generous and investor appetite is highest. “Listings tend to build on momentum,” Bank of America noted this week. That momentum is now running hot. The last comparable IPO frenzy was 2021 — followed by the worst market year since 2008. This doesn’t mean a crash is imminent, but it does mean the risk/reward profile of chasing newly public names at these levels deserves extra scrutiny.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

📬 Closing Note

On Friday morning, SpaceX became a public company. By the close, it was worth $2.11 trillion — more than every company on earth except Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.52% ) , Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.1% ) , Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.16% ) , Alphabet $GOOG ( ▲ 0.45% ) , Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 1.23% ) , and Saudi Aramco.

A company that lost $4.28 billion in its most recent quarter is now the seventh most valuable enterprise in the world. Elon Musk’s stake alone is worth $735 billion. And 20% of the shares went to retail investors — many of whom had been waiting years for this moment.

Whether SpaceX proves to be the next Amazon or the next WeWork is a question that won’t be answered for years. What we know today is that the IPO was a success by every traditional measure: it priced, it popped, and it energized the broader market on a day when it badly needed energy.

But beyond SpaceX, this week captured the mood of mid-2026 perfectly. A 900-point Dow selloff on Wednesday. A 930-point rally on Thursday. A historic IPO on Friday. All while the Iran conflict remains unresolved, the Fed meets next week, the World Cup is underway, and tech has never been a larger share of the market.

The market is doing what markets do in moments of maximum uncertainty: it’s moving fast, in both directions, rewarding conviction and punishing hesitation.

The Fed on Wednesday will be the next test. Then it’s SpaceX’s first full week of trading. Then Q2 earnings season in July. The catalysts aren’t slowing down.

Stay patient. Stay selective. And let the data guide the story.

Until next Sunday

—George ☕