Under the FX Noise, Spotify’s Moat Is Widening, and The Stock Is Still Fairly Priced

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Spotify’s shares initially fell more than 10% after reporting Q2 2025 results, but given the 70% year-to-date rally leading into the print, much of the dip looked like profit-taking. The drop proved short-lived, with $SPOT ( ▼ 0.12% ) quickly recovering as investors recognized that the revenue miss was not driven by weakening demand but rather by FX headwinds.

This is a critical distinction. When misses are operational—such as declining engagement or slowing subscriber growth—they can signal deeper strategic problems. But when misses are driven by currency swings, they rarely alter the long-term trajectory of the business. In Spotify’s case, Q2’s underlying metrics point to sustained momentum and a stronger outlook than the headlines suggested. Let’s take a deeper dive.

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