When Retail Stops Buying

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👋 ICYMI

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.97% )  reported another blowout quarter this week, posting stronger-than-expected data-center revenue and reaffirming its dominant position in AI infrastructure. Newly resumed U.S. economic data showed cooling job growth but steadier consumer spending, giving markets mixed signals about underlying momentum. Meanwhile, several Fed officials warned that inflation progress remains “uneven,” tempering expectations for a December rate cut and keeping rates uncertainty elevated. Global PMIs continued to soften, with Eurozone manufacturing slipping again and hinting at broader demand weakness heading into year-end.

🔁 Market Movers

• 👀Wall Street Indices Extend Losses as Valuation Worries Resurface

  The S&P 500 recorded its longest losing streak in three months, driven by technology-related concerns and firmer labour-market signals.

• 🏦Global Stock Markets Consolidate
  Euronext announced a €413 million takeover of the Athens Stock Exchange, expanding its European footprint and signalling broader consolidation in the global exchange landscape.

• 🙂Consumer Sentiment Lifts Slightly After Shutdown Ends
  Consumer sentiment lifted slightly from its preliminary reading earlier in the month after the government shutdown ended but remains at its lowest level since 2022

• 🇯🇵🇨🇭Japan and Switzerland Economies Contract as U.S. Tariffs Hit Exports

  Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank 0.4% and Switzerland’s fell 0.5% this week — both dragged down by export weakness and rising global trade headwinds.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• ⬆️ Morgan Stanley Raises S&P 500 Target

  Morgan Stanley boosted its 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 7,800, citing pro-growth policies, AI strength, and earnings upside.

• 🔍 Nvidia’s Blowout Quarter and What It Means for AI Flows

  Nvidia delivered another stronger-than-expected quarter, pushing its suppliers (TSMC, SK Hynix) at least temporarily higher and reinforcing that AI-infrastructure demand is still accelerating. The key signal: AI spending remains in “expansion mode,” not slowdown.

• 💵 Retail Investors Are Losing Dip-Buying Conviction

  Vanda and BofA reported that U.S. retail traders were net sellers for the first time since September — showing hesitation rather than enthusiasm during market weakness. This is usually an early sentiment shift.

• 💸 Dollar Strength Is Starting to Pressure Risk Assets

  The U.S. dollar index hit a six-month high this week. Historically, prolonged dollar strength tends to tighten global financial conditions, weigh on commodities, and pressure emerging markets.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

Retail traders — a major force behind 2023–2024’s momentum rallies — were net sellers this week for the first time in nearly two months. That shift is subtle but dangerous: when retail stops buying dips while institutional positioning remains elevated and tech earnings are wobbling, markets lose an important source of stabilizing demand. Historically, sharp pullbacks become more likely when retail enthusiasm fades before institutions adjust.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

→✨NEW ✨ My framework for reading insider moves — when buy signals outweigh noise (and when they don’t)

📬 Closing Note

This is one of those weeks where the market feels directionless, but the signals underneath are anything but. Volatility isn’t a setback — it’s an entry point, if you know what you’re looking for.

Until next Sunday —

George