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When the Fed Cuts, the World Listens
Markets cheer the Fed cut and tech momentum, Intel surges, and housing’s rebound shows resilience
George Babis
September 21, 2025
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👋 ICYMI
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25% and signaled more cuts ahead. Governor Stephen Miran dissented, arguing for a 50 bps move—an outlier view that keeps the path of easing a live debate. Markets now pivot to the dot plot and Powell’s tone for glide-path clues. Meanwhile, jobless claims eased from the spike earlier this month, but unemployment is still near a 4-year high, underscoring a softer labor backdrop.
🔁 Market Movers
🍏 Apple ramps iPhone 17 output
Reports say Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 3.2% ) asked suppliers (incl. Luxshare) to boost entry-level iPhone 17 production by ~30–40% after stronger-than-expected preorders—evidence of price-sensitive demand shifting toward the non-Pro model. Launch-day queues were long across major markets.
🛢️ OPEC+ agenda watch
Delegates met in Vienna to hash out capacity methodology after the group began unwinding some cuts; earlier this month they agreed a small October output boost as Riyadh pushes to recapture market share.
🇲🇽 Banxico likely to follow the Fed
A Reuters poll points to a 25 bps cut on Sept 25 (to 7.50%), keeping Mexico’s easing cycle intact amid subdued inflation and sluggish growth.
📈 Intel Soars on Nvidia Investment
Intel $INTC ( ▼ 3.24% ) jumped ~23% on Thursday—its biggest single-day gain since the 1980s—after Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.24% ) committed $5B to invest in Intel. The deal is driven by joint development of chips for data centers and PCs. The move lifted the semiconductor sector and helped send the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record highs.
🔒 CrowdStrike Rallies on Strong ARR Forecast
Cybersecurity name CrowdStrike $CRWD ( ▼ 0.02% ) also saw a sharp jump in its stock after projecting strong annual recurring revenue and reinforcing its growth story in AI-security.
👀 Signals I’m Watching
🔀 Pace of Fed easing
The market is leaning into a multi-cut trajectory, but Fed Miran’s dissent + sticky services inflation risks could limit the cadence.🧾 iPhone 17 mix & margins
Stronger demand for the lower-priced base model can buoy unit share but pinch gross margin; early production ramps are the tell.📊 Strong Earnings & Upward Revisions for S&P 500
Analysts have raised revenue and earnings forecasts for Q3. S&P 500 companies are expected to post ~7.7% YoY earnings growth vs. 7.2% previously and ~6.3% revenue growth. More sectors are beating estimates than average, showing broader strength beyond just handful of large names.
🏡 Housing Stocks Showing Signs of Life
Following the rate cut, housing-related sectors (homebuilders, REITs) are performing strongly. Mortgage rates modestly dropped, and investor attention is shifting into rate-sensitive names as expectations build that easing will benefit housing.
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⚠️ Red Flag to Note
Corporate debt rollover risk.
After the Fed’s rate cut, corporate bond issuance jumped as companies rushed to refinance. While liquidity looks strong now, the maturity wall in 2026–2027 is large: hundreds of billions in investment-grade and high-yield debt must be rolled over. If inflation flares back up or yields rise again, refinancing costs could spike just as balance sheets need relief. That would put pressure on leveraged sectors (real estate, telecom, small-cap industrials) and could turn last week’s “risk-on” into tomorrow’s credit squeeze.
🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching
Ticker | Insider | Action | Value | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Vivek Ramaswamy (Founder / 10%+ owner) | Sell | ~$22.7M | Even though he no longer runs operations, a large sale from a founder still carries weight. Could be profit-taking or shifting capital elsewhere—but the magnitude is enough to raise eyebrows among shareholders. | |
Hock Tan (CEO) | Transfer to Exchange Fund | ~$50M | Transferring shares into an exchange fund is often a tax-efficient move and diversifies exposure while retaining upside. It signals he still sees long-term potential but wants reduced risk. | |
R. Craig Bealmear (CFO) | Sell | ~$9.4M | Big sale from a high-ranking insider after a huge run-up; could be profit taking, especially given regulatory/licensing uncertainty ahead. |
🚀IPO Watch
Fresh Debuts
🛍️Pattern $PTRN ( ▲ 11.64% ) — E-commerce accelerator raised $300M; opened below issue, valuing it at ~$2.38B—a cooler reception vs. recent high-flyers.
🎫StubHub $STUB ( ▼ 9.95% ) — Priced at $23.50, raised ~$800M; opened up ~8% but the debut turned rocky with shares sliding 6.4% and tumbling 27.2% for the week.
🛡️Netskope $NTSK ( 0.0% ) — Cloud security name raised ~$908M; another AI-adjacent cybersecurity print testing the risk window.
🗓️Upcoming Offerings
🪙BitGo — Crypto custody firm filed after near-4x H1 revenue growth—crypto infrastructure keeps leading the fall calendar.
✍️Andersen (ANDG) — Tax & advisory firm (successor brand lineage to Arthur Andersen) filed; H1 revenue +12.4% y/y, swung to a loss. Rare pro-services float.
🏃♂️Strava — Fitness tracking app hired banks; timeline could slip to 2026, but mandate confirms intent as the window re-opens.
📬 Closing Note
Cuts change the discount rate—not the cash flows. This is a stock-picking tape: watch who can convert AI capex and consumer demand into margins, and who’s leaning on multiple expansion alone. Zoom out, size right, and keep dry powder.
Until next Sunday —
George