Powell Lights the Fuse

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👋 ICYMI

Markets extended their run, buoyed by a dovish Powell speech at Jackson Hole, and a noticeable uptick in flows—especially into crypto and risk assets. Consistent buyers are reaping the rewards.

🔁 Market Movers

• 🤑Powell Sparks Rally, Dow Smashes Records
  Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential September rate cut at Jackson Hole, triggering a 1.9% surge in the Dow (846 points), alongside strong gains across the S&P and Nasdaq.

• 🚗Resilience in Retail—Promos & Auto Rules
  U.S. July retail sales climbed a solid 0.5%, fueled by vehicle demand and discount programs from major retailers like Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 1.31% ) and Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 0.1% ) .

• 👾Bitcoin ETFs Power Digital Asset Flow
  Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs surged again—hitting a combined $40 billion weekly volume as August flows validate crypto’s growing institutional foothold.

👀 Signals I’m Watching

• 🙌U.S. Small-Cap Momentum Rebounds
  The Russell 2000 just hit its highest level of 2025, outpacing large caps thanks to Powell’s dovish tone and falling yields boosting domestic cyclicals.

• 😃Small Business Optimism Climbs
  The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 in July, its highest reading since February, indicating growing optimism for expansion and improved business conditions.

• 🤑 Investor Sentiment Rises Without Hype
  According to Investopedia, 67% of individual investors feel more bullish, buoyed by near-record stock highs and durable earnings. Yet, behavior hasn’t tipped into euphoria—prudence remains part of the narrative.

• 💳Credit Trends Show Household Stability
  Q2 data from TransUnion and the Fed reveal slowing credit card balance growth (~4.5% YoY) and disciplined borrowing, suggesting households are managing debt more cautiously—even amid increased spending.

⚠️ Red Flag to Note

The rally is broad—but Powell also warned that tariffs remain an inflation wildcard. Stay alert: next inflation prints could steer sentiment fast.

🔍 Insider Transactions I’m Watching

→Forward this table to the friend who always copies insider trades

🚀IPO Watch

• 🛍️Pattern Group (PTRN)
  E‑commerce accelerator filed an IPO with 35% revenue growth in H1 2025 (to $1.14B) and $47M net income; aims to list post–Labor Day.

• 💧WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI)

  Midstream water management firm filed for U.S. IPO; operates 2,500 miles of pipelines and 196 facilities, posted $375M revenue in H1 2025, with $38M loss.

• 🔗Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR)

  Blockchain-based lending firm publicly filed for IPO on Nasdaq; another notable deferral toward fintech listings after market lull.

• ☕️ Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)

  This growing coffee chain recently filed for an IPO on Nasdaq on Monday, marking another sign of renewed confidence in mid-tier consumer brands.

🎤 Investor Spotlight: Steven Wood from GWInvestors

“Looking Beyond the Headlines”

(This week, Steven Wood from @GWInvestors joins us and shares his takes on cycles, overlooked sectors, and how he’s positioning in a frothy market. It has been edited for length and clarity.)

What market signals are you tracking most closely right now?

Beyond the obvious optimism in U.S. large caps, we’re watching FX positioning and equity flows outside the U.S. Since 2007, global capital has favored U.S. large cap — driving valuations to extremes. This year, we’re asking whether the emerging rotation into ex-U.S. equities has legs. In our view, deficits have funneled global capital into the S&P 500; if the U.S. trade deficit narrows, that could reinforce a sustained shift abroad.

With AI dominating headlines, which overlooked sectors deserve more attention?

We see durable tailwinds in areas like European defense (LDO.MI), e-commerce outside developed markets (CTT.LS), and European banks recovering from a decade of low valuations. Luxury, especially watches and jewelry (UHR.SWX), looks particularly attractive after the broader sector’s sell-off. We’re also actively diligencing healthcare and diagnostics, which have been in a deep bear market since Covid.

In a frothy market, how are you positioning your portfolio?

We run a barbell approach: maintaining hedges while still leaning into the bull market. For example, at MEI Pharma ($MEIP), where I served on the board for a couple years, we shifted toward a crypto treasury strategy — controversial, but it unlocked accretive growth. Our largest position is Swatch, trading at half liquidation value. With gold and Swiss franc backing, plus China’s recovery after a decade-long watch bear market, it’s a play that reminds us more of 2009-2010 cyclicals than late-bubble 1999.

Which macro or earnings datapoint will be most telling for the rest of the year?

We’re bottoms-up, not macro-driven — macro forecasts often multiply errors. What matters most are company-level catalysts that transform the narrative: turnaround → value → GARP → compounder. That said, we’re monitoring AI capex trends. As long as investors cheer big tech spending, the bull can run; but once capex excess is punished, we’ll tilt more defensive.

How do you manage investor psychology when building long-term, value-oriented portfolios?

We keep portfolio diversity while staying concentrated. Not every position works at once, so it’s key to have names at different transformation stages. We constantly ask: “Would we add new money here?” If not, we move on. This mindset improves selling discipline and keeps us aligned with opportunities rather than trailing returns. Our best partners are those with aligned time horizons — capital that matches the mission, not just the cycle.

Follow Steven at @GWInvestors for more of his insights — and on Instagram at @thebuildersbook for updates on his upcoming book launch.

📬 Closing Note

From Powell’s hint at cuts to crypto IPOs and insider confidence — the edge belongs to those who dig deeper than headlines.

Know someone still skimming headlines? Hit forward—and let them sip smarter.